Week 44 | Friday 30 October – Sunday 1 November 2026
THE WEEKEND OF THE UNDERDOGS
Favourites are only favourites until the first scrum. This weekend the fixture list is loaded with sides who were beaten, bruised or written off seven days ago. Every one of them has a reason to bite back. Here’s how the shocks could land.
UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP
Connacht v Leinster | Fri 19:45 | Dexcom Stadium
Five straight defeats to Leinster. That’s the baggage. The momentum says otherwise: Connacht put 48 past Zebre last Friday, while Leinster edged Munster 24-18. Stuart Lancaster turned this side into last season’s playoff surprise. Friday night in Galway, a crowd sniffing blood. This is where streaks end.
Glasgow v Lions | Fri 19:45 | Scotstoun
The Lions were thumped 31-10 in Edinburgh. Good. Wounded Lions are dangerous Lions. This group beat Glasgow at home last season on the way to their first URC playoff. Glasgow were made to sweat 24-20 in Treviso, and blood three debutants tonight. Scotstoun is a fortress. Fortresses have gates.
Stormers v Ulster | Sat 12:45 | DHL Stadium
The Stormers scored 52 against Scarlets. They also leaked 40. That’s the crack Ulster will drive a maul through. Beaten 34-26 at Loftus but competitive at altitude, Ulster know this fixture’s chaos: last May finished 38-38 in Belfast. Cape Town expects a home win. Ulster expect a fight.
Benetton v Edinburgh | Sat 15:00 | Stadio Monigo
Benetton lost to Glasgow by four and looked a side on the rise doing it. Edinburgh are buzzing after dismantling the Lions, and that’s precisely the danger. Edinburgh pinched a 15-14 win at Monigo in January; Treviso hasn’t forgotten. Heavy pack, home crowd, point to prove. Upset loading.
Bulls v Scarlets | Sat 15:00 | Loftus Versfeld
Scarlets scored 40 in Cape Town and still lost. Take that defence to Loftus at your peril. The Bulls, runners-up in the last two seasons, should run clear. Underdog rating: long shot.
Munster v Sharks | Sat 17:30 | Thomond Park
Here the roles flip. The Sharks won 36-21 in Cardiff with Springboks back in the starting XV; Munster lost their derby. Thomond rarely tolerates back-to-back defeats. The Sharks arrive as the in-form side.
Dragons v Zebre | Sat 17:30 | Rodney Parade
Both lost last week. Dragons fell 31-14 to the Ospreys; Zebre shipped 48 in Galway. The home side must win. Anything less is a crisis.
Ospreys v Cardiff | Sat 19:45 | St Helen’s
A Welsh derby at the Ospreys’ new Swansea home. Ospreys won comfortably last week; Cardiff lost at home to the Sharks. In derbies, last week means nothing.
GALLAGHER PREM
Bristol v Leicester | Fri 19:45 | Ashton Gate
Third hosts second. Leicester crushed Northampton 28-7; Bristol beat Exeter 20-7. Not an upset. A statement game. The winner sets the pace behind Gloucester.
Saracens v Newcastle | Sat 15:00 | StoneX Stadium
The purest underdog sniff in England. Saracens were taken apart 33-15 by Quins. Newcastle strangled Sale 17-3. Rising belief against a wobbling giant.
Exeter v Harlequins | Sat 15:00 | Sandy Park
Ninth versus tenth, but Quins arrive off the round’s best display, with Marcus Smith the standout. Smith in that mood turns tables. Exeter need a reaction, fast.
Bath v Sale | Sat 15:05 | The Rec
Bath were held to five points at Gloucester. Johann van Graan has £400,000 to spend and won’t rush it. That’s a squad being backed to fix itself. Sale, beaten in Newcastle, need points too.
Northampton v Gloucester | Sat 17:30 | Franklin’s Gardens
Gloucester top the table. Saints were humbled at Welford Road. Franklin’s Gardens is exactly where a hurting side bites back.
WXV GLOBAL SERIES
USA v England | Fri 21:15 | Sports Illustrated Stadium
The headline act of underdog weekend. England have suffered their first back-to-back defeats in a decade. The Eagles arrive on a five-match unbeaten streak. History says England by a distance. Momentum says New Jersey could host the shock of the women’s year.
New Zealand v France | Sat 06:10 | One NZ Stadium
New Zealand beat France last week. Les Bleues get an instant rematch. Rematches favour the side with more to fix.
Japan v Wales | Sat 07:00 | Rugby Grounds
Wales won last week’s meeting. Japan at home, with seven days to adjust, is a different proposition.
South Africa v Ireland | Sat 13:00 | City Park
Ireland travel as expected winners. A Cape Town crowd behind the Bok Women is the great equaliser.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Upsets aren’t luck. They’re pressure meeting a side with nothing left to lose. Connacht, the Lions, Ulster, Benetton and the Eagles all tick that box. If two land, it’s a good weekend. If four land, it’s the Weekend of the Underdogs.
