Unbeaten at home in July, the Springboks face three away Tests in November. We think they win all three and beat France twice.
The Springboks go into November top of the South pool on points difference, level with New Zealand on 15 points after three wins each. July at home was emphatic: England beaten 45–21 in Johannesburg, Scotland 42–28 in Pretoria, Wales 43–0 in Durban. That is plus 81 in three matches.
November is a different test: three Tests in Europe on three straight weekends, starting in Turin on 7 November. We have Italy beaten comfortably, 42–14. The match that decides the tournament comes six days later in Paris.
France lead the North on 12 points, and Paris on a Friday night is a hard place for a touring side. We have South Africa winning there anyway, 32–24. Then comes Dublin on 21 November, where we predict Ireland 23, South Africa 31.
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That would leave the Springboks on 30 points, level with New Zealand, who we have winning in Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. Points difference separates them, and that is where July’s big margins pay off: +125 to +83 in our projection. Finishing top of the South means a Twickenham final against the best side in the North.
The North table is tighter. We project France on 22, England 21, Scotland 21 and Ireland 19, with England edging Scotland for second on points difference. A single bonus point either way changes the order.
Our prediction for the final, Sunday 29 November at 16:40, Twickenham: France 23, South Africa 29. The same opponent beaten twice in sixteen days.
Two more calls to hold us to. New Zealand win at Twickenham twice: 28–24 against England in Round 6, then 29–24 on finals weekend. And the North still take the Hemisphere Shield 4–3, with the title final counting double. The South win the matches that matter most, and the North win more of the rest.
These are editorial predictions, not odds. We’ll score ourselves after every round, right or wrong.
Think we’ve got it wrong? Name your champion in the comments.
Every fixture and predicted score is in the full graphic below.
