Canada’s win in Toronto ends four years of English certainty, and that is good news for anyone with money in women’s rugby
For four years, the most valuable fact in women’s rugby was also its biggest commercial problem: everyone knew who would win. On Friday night in Toronto, that certainty ended. Shoshanah Seumanutafa’s try three minutes from time, backed by a stubborn Canadian defence, gave the hosts a 24-21 win at BMO Field. It was England’s first defeat since the 2022 World Cup final The Tide Turns on England
After years of English supremacy, the rest of women’s rugby is finally closing the gap
For most of this decade, women’s international rugby has had one fixed point: England win. They won in Six Nations routs, in autumn tests and on the biggest stage, beating Canada 33-13 in last year’s World Cup final in front of 81,885 people at Twickenham. The question was never whether the Red Roses would win, only by how much.
That question has changed. On Friday night in Toronto, Canada beat England 24-21, with Shoshanah Seumanutafa scoring three minutes from time. It was England’s first defeat since the 2022 World Cup final, a run of 41 matches unbeaten. More important than the result itself is what it confirms: the teams chasing England are no longer just following. They have caught up.
Five weeks that changed the picture
Toronto was not an isolated shock. It was the last step in a steady erosion through this autumn’s WXV Global Series.
In September, Canada drew 26-26 with England in Exeter and ended a record 39-match winning streak. A week later at Allianz Stadium, New Zealand had England under pressure for most of the first half and were heading for a draw until Zoe Harrison’s interception on the final play gave the hosts a 26-19 win. Then came Toronto.
Look at England’s results against top opposition: a draw, a seven-point win, a three-point loss. A year ago, World Cup finals were won by 20 points. The Red Roses have not suddenly become a poor side. Their opponents have become far better ones.
Canada: the challenger built on less
Canada’s rise is the clearest example. This is a programme that, until recently, had lost 17 straight matches to New Zealand and had not beaten England since 2016. In the past three years they have beaten the Black Ferns, knocked them out of a World Cup semi-final, reached the final, drawn with England and now beaten them.
They did it without England’s resources. The Red Roses are fully professional, with long training camps and the deepest player pool in the women’s game. Canada has relied on organisation, defensive grit and a group of players who have stayed together across a full World Cup cycle. Captain Sophie de Goede, the reigning World Rugby women’s player of the year, gives them a leader who can match anyone England put on the field.
New Zealand: rebuilt and dangerous
The Black Ferns finished only third at last year’s World Cup, a poor return for six-time champions. Under new head coach Whitney Hansen, the response has been quick. They came within seconds of drawing at Allianz Stadium, and on Saturday they beat France 81-12 in Hamilton. This was not a side that has fallen away. It is one that is regrouping with clear intent.
Australia: the host nation arrives
The Wallaroos are the next wave. Their 56-12 win over Scotland in Sydney was emphatic. With the 2029 World Cup on home soil, Australia have both the incentive and the funding to close the gap faster than any other team outside the top four.
The catch-up is real, but narrow
The shift has limits, and they should be stated. The chasing pack is not uniform. France beat Canada 21-5 in September and then conceded 81 points in New Zealand. Scotland were overwhelmed in Sydney. The tide is rising fastest at the very top: Canada and New Zealand can now beat England, while most of the rest still cannot.
The world rankings will also trail the reality. England will stay first when the table is updated, with a smaller lead. The ranking system rewards years of results, and England have years in the bank. It will take more than one autumn to remove them.
Why a closer contest is worth more
This is good news for the sport’s economics. Sponsors, broadcasters and fans pay for uncertainty. A competition with a known winner is hard to sell at premium prices. A competition with three or four genuine contenders is a different product.
Demand is already responding. Toronto drew 18,621 people on a cold, wet night, the largest crowd ever for a standalone women’s rugby match in North America. Close to 59,000 watched England and New Zealand in London. Crowds of that size show up for real contests.
For commercial partners, the opening is now. Rights and sponsorship in women’s rugby were priced during a period of English dominance and predictable results. Those who back the rising programmes before the 2029 World Cup will be buying ahead of the market. Those who wait will pay the price set by these new rivalries.
Ottawa will tell us more
England and Canada meet again in Ottawa next Friday. A second Canadian win would turn a shock into a trend. An emphatic English response would show the champions are still the benchmark, now with company.
Either way, women’s rugby is no longer a one-team story. England are still the team to beat. For the first time in years, others know they can.
