Australia is planning a World Cup Party. Eden Park Hasn’t Accepted the Invitation.
Somewhere in Australia, somebody is presumably measuring the trophy cabinet.
The Wallabies have beaten the Springboks, climbed to sixth in the world and rediscovered the glorious national tradition of believing that any sporting recovery should culminate in a presentation ceremony.
Jeremy Williams backs Australia to win the World Cup at home next year. Tim Horan thinks the tournament is unusually open.
Fair enough. Nobody sells tickets by promising a respectable quarter-final exit.
But before the Webb Ellis Cup gets allocated a window seat on the victory bus, there is a small administrative matter across the Tasman.
Eden Park.
New Zealand have not lost there since 1994. Apparently, the venue has been operating a fairly strict policy on visiting optimism.
Australia will arrive with something more substantial than the usual collection of brave statements and promotional photographs. Their first series victory in Argentina matters. Beating South Africa in Perth matters. An unbeaten run matters.
These are results, and Australian rugby has spent enough time explaining why results should be assessed through the more sympathetic lens of rebuilding.
Eventually, the scaffolding has to come down.
There is now evidence of a team capable of making opponents uncomfortable. That deserves recognition, including from South African supporters currently preparing a detailed explanation of why losing to Australia should not technically count.
The Springboks cannot be the ultimate examination when they win and an irrelevant practice exercise when they lose.
Australia earned their moment.
What they have not earned is immunity from scrutiny.
Sixth in the world represents recovery from tenth. It does not represent a reservation for the final. The danger is that Australian rugby mistakes the relief of becoming competitive again for proof that it has become exceptional.
Those are different achievements, with rather different entry requirements.
Winning a home World Cup demands more than an attacking afternoon that leaves supporters breathless. It demands a functioning exit strategy when the crowd goes quiet and the opposition starts squeezing.
It requires replacements who can preserve control, rather than merely preserve the number of players on the field.
Above all, it requires discipline when excitement offers the seductive alternative of doing something spectacularly unnecessary.
That is why Eden Park is such a useful appointment.
The All Blacks will not care about Australia’s renewed commercial appeal. They will not award points for restoring public interest. Their hospitality generally extends to the national anthems, after which guests are encouraged to reconsider their ambitions.
Yet making this match a simplistic referendum would be foolish.
Australia could lose in Auckland and still demonstrate that their revival has substance. A composed performance under sustained pressure would tell us more than another extravagant prediction.
Equally, a victory would not automatically make them World Cup favourites. It would, however, make dismissing them considerably harder.
For the tournament itself, a credible Australian challenge would be enormously valuable. Home supporters need a team they can imagine winning, especially once the novelty of hosting gives way to the anxiety of knockout rugby.
Belief fills the space between buying a ticket and caring desperately about the result.
But belief becomes dangerous when it starts selecting the evidence.
Williams should back his team. Anything else would be bizarre. Horan is entitled to see opportunity in an unsettled field.
The rest of us are entitled to request another demonstration before joining the parade.
Australian rugby has found its voice again. Good. The sport is more interesting when the Wallabies contribute something beyond a cautionary tale.
Now comes the difficult part: making the confidence survive contact with an opponent determined to embarrass it.
Keep the champagne chilled.
Eden Park usually supplies the ice.
