Why the All Blacks Keep Winning the Start — and the Springboks Keep Winning the Game
RUGBYRAPT EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS
For more than a century, South Africa against New Zealand has been rugby’s ultimate measuring stick.
The historical numbers still belong overwhelmingly to the All Blacks. But buried beneath 105 years of Test rugby is a much more immediate — and potentially far more important — story.
New Zealand are increasingly winning the first 40 minutes. South Africa are winning the 80.
And as the two giants prepare to meet again at Ellis Park, that may be the statistic that matters most.
As of 19 August 2026, the Springboks and All Blacks have played 110 official Tests. New Zealand have won 63, South Africa 43, with four draws. Saturday’s Ellis Park Test will be the 111th meeting.
That is the history.
The recent numbers tell a very different story.
Seven Wins From Ten — But That’s Not the Real Story
Across the last 10 Tests between the sides, from October 2021 through September 2025:
South Africa: 7 wins
New Zealand: 3 wins
That alone represents a significant shift in rugby’s greatest rivalry.
But RugbyRapt’s analysis of those 10 matches uncovered something much more revealing.
At halftime across the 10 Tests, the cumulative score reads:
NEW ZEALAND 109
SOUTH AFRICA 87
The All Blacks have collectively won the opening halves by 22 points.
Then everything changes.
Across the second halves of those same matches:
SOUTH AFRICA 169
NEW ZEALAND 91
The Springboks have won the final 40 minutes by an extraordinary 78 points.
New Zealand are starting better.
South Africa are finishing vastly better.
The Statistic That Should Terrify New Zealand
Of the last 10 Tests, New Zealand have gone into halftime ahead on seven occasions.
How many of those seven matches did they actually win?
Three.
Four halftime leads disappeared.
South Africa, by comparison, have led at halftime only three times in the same period.
They won all three.
It means New Zealand have converted just three of seven halftime leads into victories — 43%.
South Africa’s conversion rate when leading at the break is 100%.
That is where this rivalry has changed.
This is no longer simply about which team establishes physical superiority early. It is increasingly about which team can absorb pressure, adapt, use its bench, manipulate territory and maintain intensity deep into the contest.
And the evidence says South Africa are doing that significantly better.
Eight Second Halves Out of Ten
South Africa have outscored New Zealand after halftime in eight of the last 10 Tests.
Only twice have the All Blacks won the second-half scoreboard: their 35–23 victory at Ellis Park in August 2022 and the 2023 Rugby World Cup final.
And even in Paris, New Zealand’s 5–0 second-half advantage was not enough. South Africa had already established a 12–6 halftime lead and closed out the World Cup final 12–11.
The pattern has repeated itself in increasingly dramatic fashion.
In October 2021, New Zealand led 20–14 at halftime. South Africa won 31–29.
At Ellis Park in August 2024, New Zealand led 12–11 at halftime, stretched their advantage to 27–17 with little more than 10 minutes remaining — and still lost 31–27.
A week later in Cape Town, the All Blacks again led at halftime, this time 9–3.
South Africa won 18–12.
Then came Wellington.
Wellington Changed the Scale of the Argument
On 13 September 2025, New Zealand led South Africa 10–7 at halftime.
Nothing about the first 40 minutes suggested what was coming.
South Africa then produced one of the most destructive halves ever played against an All Black team.
Second half: South Africa 36, New Zealand 0.
Final score:
SOUTH AFRICA 43
NEW ZEALAND 10
It became the heaviest Test defeat in All Blacks history, surpassing the previous record — South Africa’s own 35–7 demolition of New Zealand at Twickenham in 2023.
But remove Wellington completely and the argument still stands.
Take that extraordinary 36–0 half out of the sample and South Africa still lead the combined second-half scoring across the other nine matches:
133–91.
This isn’t one freak result distorting the data.
It’s a trend.
The Full 10-Test Picture
Over the complete 80 minutes of those last 10 Tests, the cumulative scoreboard reads:
SOUTH AFRICA 256
NEW ZEALAND 200
Yet after the combined first halves, New Zealand were leading 109–87.
Think about what that means.
Across 10 Tests, the Springboks have turned a cumulative 22-point halftime deficit into a 56-point full-time advantage.
That represents a 78-point swing after halftime.
For all the talk about physicality, scrums, lineouts, kicking, the Bomb Squad and South Africa’s extraordinary forward resources, this may be the simplest statistical description of the modern Springboks:
They stay alive long enough to change the game.
And once the game enters its final phase, they are becoming extraordinarily difficult to contain.
The All Blacks’ Paradox
None of this means New Zealand are incapable of hurting South Africa.
Quite the opposite.
The first-half numbers prove the All Blacks are still repeatedly finding ways to get ahead.
At Eden Park in 2025 they led 14–3 at halftime and, crucially, finished the job, winning 24–17.
In Auckland in 2023 they exploded into a 20–3 halftime lead before winning 35–20.
Their problem is not necessarily creating the advantage.
Their problem has increasingly become protecting it.
That changes the psychological equation of this rivalry.
Twenty years ago, falling 10 points behind the All Blacks could make a Test feel as though it were disappearing.
The current Springboks have accumulated enough evidence to believe almost the opposite:
Stay close. Survive. Keep applying pressure. Get to the final quarter.
Because recent history says the game may only then be beginning.
History Still Says New Zealand. Momentum Says, South Africa.
The All Blacks’ 63–43 overall advantage cannot be dismissed. It was built across generations of exceptional New Zealand teams and remains a substantial historical lead.
But the next Test will not be played by the great All Black sides of the past.
It will be played by two teams carrying the evidence of their most recent encounters.
And that evidence says South Africa have won seven of the last 10 and five of the last six.
Even more significantly, New Zealand have led seven of those last 10 Tests at halftime — and walked away victorious only three times.
That is the question hanging over Ellis Park:
Can the All Blacks turn 40 good minutes into 80?
Because against these Springboks, winning halftime is increasingly proving to be nowhere near enough.
The All Blacks have been winning the start.
The Springboks have been winning the game.
And in rugby’s greatest rivalry, those final 40 minutes may now be the most important 40 minutes in world rugby.
